Credit Risk Management in the UK Banking Sector

Credit Risk Management in the UK Banking Sector Foundation 3 Writing Review 7 Learning why and how banking credit hazard introduction is advancing as of late 8 Perceiving how banks use credit chance assessment and evaluation devices to alleviate their credit chance introduction 11 The means and philosophies utilized by banks to recognize, plan, outline, characterize a structure, build up an examination and relieve credit hazard 13 Decide the connection between the hypotheses, ideas and models of credit hazard the board and what goes on essentially in the financial world 17 Discover the extension to which creative credit hazard the executives can liven up bank execution 19 To assess how controllers and government are helping the banks to recognize, alleviate credit hazard, and assisting with embracing the hazard based procedures to expand their productivity, and offering help on nonstop premise 20 Examination Methodology 21 Investigation 23 Learning why and how banking credit hazard introduction is developing as of late 23 Perceiving how banks use credit chance assessment and appraisal devices to alleviate their credit chance presentation 25 The means and procedures utilized by banks to distinguish, plan, outline, characterize a system, build up an investigation and moderate credit hazard 31 Decide the connection between the hypotheses, ideas and models of credit hazard the board and what goes on for all intents and purposes in the financial world 35 Find out the degree to which creative credit hazard the executives can liven up bank execution 38 To assess how controllers and government are helping the banks to recognize, moderate credit hazard, and assisting with embracing the hazard based systems to build their benefit, and offering help on persistent premise 40 Essential Survey 45 Ends 46 Proposals 50 Book index 56 Foundation The sub-prime home loan emergency that hit the worldwide financial segment in 2007, was an aftereffect of conditions, activities and repercussions that started years sooner (Long, 2007). It, the sub-prime home loan emergency, depended on unsound ground from its commencement. Sub-prime home loans speak to advances made to borrowers that have lower evaluations in their credit than the standard (investopedia, 2007). Because of the lower borrower FICO score, they don't fit the bill for what is named as an ordinary home loan because of default chance (investopedia, 2007). Sub-prime home loans accordingly steal a higher financing cost to away set the hazard increment, which assisted with filling the United States economy through expanded home possession, and the chaperon spending that goes with it (Bajaj and Nixon, 2006). Actualized by the Bush organization in the United States to get this show on the road after the downturn fuelled by the September eleventh air assaults, the whole arrange ment started to reverse discharge as ahead of schedule as 2004 because of the kept structure of new lodging without the interest (Norris, 2008). The new development glutted the market cutting down house costs. This, combined with an easing back economy in the United States brought about cutbacks, just as numerous subprime contract holders defaulting on their credits, and the emergency expanded. Some quality the over loaning of subprime home loans to savage loaning (Squires, 2004, pp. 81-87) alongside the hidden deficiencies of utilizing it as a monetary upgrade bundle that didn't control the cutoff points on new lodging (Cocheo, 2007). That situation spoke to the reason for the subprime contract emergency that spread comprehensively because of the fixing of credit due to defaulted advance sell offs and limited financial loaning roofs brought about by the Basel II Accords (Peterson, 2005). The multifaceted nature of the previous will be additionally clarified in the Literature Review segment of this investigation. The first rundown venture through the subprime contract emergency was led to uncover the way in which banking credit crunches can and do happen. The noteworthiness of the prior to this investigation speaks to a guide to stir us to the outer components that can and do cause banking credit emergency circumstances, in this manner uncovering that notwithstanding great administration practices such occasions can show themselves. It is likewise evident that poor or remiss financial practices can have similar impacts. Credit chance administration speaks to the evaluating of the hazard in seeking after a specific course, and additionally blueprints (Powell, 2004). Notwithstanding the prior U.S. made subprime contract emergency, the presence of new types of budgetary instruments has and is causing an issue in acknowledge hazard the executives for respect to the financial part. As the universes second biggest budgetary focus, the United Kingdom is dependent upon exchange volumes that expansion the dangers the financial part takes as such a large number of new types of money related instruments land there first. McClave (1996, p. 15) furnishes us with a comprehension of bank chance that opens the domain to give us a diagram of the issue by letting us know: Banks must oversee chance all the more unbiasedly, utilizing quantitative aptitudes to comprehend portfolio information and to foresee portfolio execution. Thus, hazard the executives will turn out to be more procedure situated and less reliant on people. Angelopoulos and Mourdoukoutas (2001, p. 11) intensify the previous in expressing that Banking hazard the executives is both a philosophical and an operational issue. They include: As a philosophical issue, banking hazard the executives is about mentalities towards chance and the result related with it, and methodologies in managing them. As an operational issue, chance administration is about the ID and arrangement of banking dangers, and techniques and strategies to quantify, screen, and control them. (Angelopoulos and Mourdoukoutas, 2001, p. 11) In closing, Angelopoulos and Mourdoukoutas (2001, p. 11) disclose to us that the two methodologies are in all actuality not separated, and additionally free structure one another, and that mentalities concerning hazard add to deciding the rules for the estimation of hazard just as its control and observing. The exploration that has been directed has been accumulated to address credit hazard the board in the United Kingdom banking part. So as to compare such, information has been accumulated from every single remarkable source, paying little heed to their district as fundamental financial techniques stay steady around the world. References explicit to the European Union and the United Kingdom were utilized in those occasions when the subtleties of enactment, laws, strategies and related components directed and prove an aberrance that was explicit. Regarding significance, credit hazard is one of the most significant capacities in banking as it speaks to the establishment of how banks procure cash from stored finances they are depended with. This being the situation, the way wherein banks deal with their credit hazard is a basic segment of their exhibition over the close to term just as long haul. The suggestions are that todays choices sway the future, accordingly banks can't move toward current productivity without taking measures to guarantee that choices made in the present don't affect them contrarily later on (Comptroller of the Currency, 2001). An all around planned, working and oversaw credit hazard rating framework advances the wellbeing of a bank just as adequacy regarding settling on educated choices (Comptroller of the Currency, 2001). The framework works by estimating the various kinds of credit chance through separating them into bunches that separate hazard by the hazard presented. This empowers the executives jus t as bank inspectors to screen patterns and changes to hazard introduction, and this limit chance through expanding the kinds of hazard taken on through division (Comptroller of the Currency, 2001). The kinds of credit hazards a bank faces speaks to an expansive cluster of standard, which means old and builds up sources, just as new fields that are creating, picking up favor, and additionally affecting banks because of the snugness of global financial that makes an expanding influence. The previously mentioned subprime emergency had such an impact in, that the closeness of the global financial network quickened improvements. The deregulation of banking has expanded the hazard stakes for banks as they currently can participate in a wide exhibit of loaning and speculation rehearses (Dorfman, 1997, pp. 67-73). Banking credit chance has been affected by innovation, which was one of the contributing components in the subprime emergency (Sraeel, 2008). Innovation impacts banks on the two sides of the coin in that figuring power and new programming licenses banks to devise and use verifiable hazard counts in likening present hazard structures. In any case, all things considered with al l recipes, they are just as compelling as the boundaries entered (Willis, 2003). The interconnected idea of the worldwide financial framework implies that bank hazard has expanded because of the snappy way wherein monetary instruments, credit chance exchange, and different frameworks, as well as types of hazard are taken care of. The Bank for International Settlements drove a board that investigated Payment and Settlement Systems, which impacts all types of banking credit chance, both new structures just as long standing built up ones in advances, speculations and different fields (TransactionDirectory.com, 2008). The report demonstrates that while innovation and correspondence frameworks are and have expanded the effectiveness of banking through interior administration just as banking frameworks, these equivalent regions, innovation and interchanges frameworks additionally have and are adding to chance. The unpredictability of the issues that emerge in a conversation of credit chance administration implies that there are numerous terms that are material to the prior that are banking industry explicit to this region. In introducing this material, it was considered that these extraordinary terms would have more effect on the off chance that they were clarified, as far as their specific circumstance, as they happen to facilitate the assignment of processing the data. This investigation will look at credit hazard the executives in the UK banking area, and the prior along these lines will consider banking regu

Education For Woman Essay

Instruction is extremely basic for each one since it is the main training by which we can separate between people and creatures. Instruction discloses to us that how might we live in a general public that’s why training is significant for each one, for the two people. In past, ladies didn't get any training whatsoever. They were not permitted to come out of the four dividers of their homes. Household works were their lone instruction. Be that as it may, presently we are living in 21th centaury where there is no any distinction among people. In this century ladies have a similar regard as men have. They help each other in each circle. So instruction ought to be given to the two people. In any case, rather than this there are such a large number of individuals who would prefer not to teach their ladies since they imagine that ladies needn't bother with instruction. They believe that ladies are relied upon to deal with everybody aside from themselves. They need to deal with the youngsters, remain at home, tidy up the house, and be oneself denying spouse and mother. They think just that the life of a lady is tied in with getting hitched, having youngsters, and being besieged by immaterial subtleties of home life. In any case, they don't comprehend that the instruction is significant for ladies for them as well as for an entire family. Since ladies are the moms of things to come age. In the event that ladies are uneducated, the people in the future will be uneducated. In everyday life, the genuine issues are confronted first by ladies and afterward similar issues are passed on to men for arrangement. On the off chance that the ladies are instructed, they can take care of the considerable number of issues of their homes. It is said that at whatever point any men get instruction it is just helpful for him however at whatever point any ladies get training it is valuable for entire family. An informed lady gives an informed family and an informed family can improves society. We can not envision a divine being society without the instruction of ladies. On the off chance that a lady won't get training in what capacity will she oversee entire family? Man and lady resemble the different sides of a coin. Without one, the other can't exist. Instruction ladies can give an informed family as well as Education of ladies can likewise be useful in annihilating numerous social wrongs, for example, share issue, joblessness issue, and so on. Social harmony can without much of a stretch be set up. A lady needs to play three particular parts over an amazing span in every one of which certain obligations are anticipated from her. The main obligation of a lady is toâ be a decent girl. The second is to be a decent spouse. Furthermore, the third is to be a decent mother. Instruction trains a mother what she ought to be. It additionally instructs her how she would do it to be a decent little girl, a great spouse and a decent mother. Just With the assistance of training ladies can know their privileges .Woman has a place with a more fragile segment of the general public since she experiences numerous debilitations because of inflexible, obsolete social traditions and strict practices. However, an informed lady can't be misused without any problem. She knows about her privileges and will go any length to shield them. Likewise, one of a mother’s most elevated obligations is the training of her youngsters when their psyche isn't amiable to guidance. A child’s entire future life, to a huge degree, relies upon the training it gets in youth and it is obviously that this first establishment of instruction can't be very much laid by a uninformed mother. Accordingly training will empower ladies to make their kids, spouses and guardians really upbeat. Subsequently it is significant that ladies ought to be taught. On every one of these grounds female instruction is an indispensable need.

International trade Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words - 3

Global exchange - Essay Example At long last, it remarks on the legitimacy of the model and its suggestions in today’s world. Before examining the substance of the model, it is essential to know the assumptionson which the model is based. As of now talked about this model expect that there are two nations delivering two merchandise, having two homogeneous variables of creation. It is likewise accepted that advancements winning in the two nations are indistinguishable. Creation of the two items maintains the states of steady comes back to scale. One of the two wares utilizes one of the two elements of creation all the more seriously in contrast with the other. The presence of impeccable rivalry is accepted in the two wares and factor markets. Factor portability wins inside a similar nation however not among various nations. Tastes are additionally viewed as comparable between the two nations. At long last, it is expected that there are no exchange boundaries and no expenses acquired for transportation. The Heckscher-Ohlin hypothesis expresses that a capital rich nation sends out items which are capital escal ated and the nation which is work bounteous fares products trades work serious wares. This model has been clarified with the assistance of a graph. The nation which is sending out is alluded as the remote nation and the nation bringing in is alluded to as the nation of origin. It is accepted that the nation of origin and the remote nation is sending out product 1 and 2 separately. At that point, as indicated by the presumption, the nation of origin trades great 1, while the great 2 is sent out by the remote nation. To demonstrate this, a specific instance of factor enrichment distinction is thought of, L/K > L*/K*, and it is likewise accepted that work gifts in the two nations stay indistinguishable. In this way, L = L*. The capital gift in the outside nation surpasses that in the nation of origin, for example K > K*. So as to decide the

Identifying Business Case Problems & Application Needs - 2200 Words

Identifying Business Case Problems, Analysing the Problems in Detail and Providing the Needs for Application of Artificial Intelligence on the Problems (Research Paper Sample) Content: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCEby Studentà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s nameCode+ course nameProfessorà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s nameUniversity nameCity, StateDateTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3RESEARCH BODY 3-9CONCLUSION 9REFERENCES 10-11APPENDIX 12EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe main objective of the report is to identify the essence of business artificial intelligence and how it can be employed in modern society. A case scenario is chosen in the real life world. The problems facing the business and a framework of good intelligence model that will be used to solve some of the challenges are identified. Modern business techniques relevant to businesses today are clearly identified in detail with all the relevant modularityà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s involved cited. This is accounted i n terms of how it is integrated to the identified business case.BRIEF INTRODUCTIONThe modern era is full of technological advances whose life cycle keeps changing each passing day. Business organizations have thus not been left behind in the evolving planet. As a matter of fact, information is power. Organizations, mainly in business related fields, have to keep up with the pace of their competitors. They definitely cannot withstand the stormy weather without masterminding themselves past their weaknesses and probably inflating more into their strengths. Business intelligence is increasingly becoming a more and more popular tool among business players. Business intelligence is a constituent of tools used in acquisition and analysis of data (Williams Williams 2010). The systems employed will usually aid in displaying the progress of a given businessà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬ intelligence in areas like customer support, customer profiles, a given market segmentation, profits and statistics, etc. Bu siness intelligence is normally made possible by use of sophisticated software that simplifies data mining by making easier to retrieve information.IDENTIFYING BUSINESS CASE PROBLEMS, ANALYSING THE PROBLEMS IN DETAIL AND PROVIDING THE NEEDS FOR APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE PROBLEMSEconomic recession is viewed as one of the major threats to the world at the moment. Consequently, a lot of organizations are facing a fight to survive the patchy path. Cost of production has shot severely. All the factors of production such as land, labour, capital are becoming more and more expensive. Economic meltdown has directly demanded that even the cost of hiring workers has to increase. Human resource departments in many of the organization are experiencing a great challenge in acquisition of cheap labour. It is important to have balance between costs of production and profits to be generated. To single out the difficulties experienced, let us just consider an example of one facto r of production that is increasingly facing inflation in terms of cost, labour. Escalating cost of production in developing countries or third world countries that were previously deemed the cheapest source of labour has really dealt lots of businesses a blow. Let us take an example of two factories that are in business to supply milk to consumers in the vicinity. For any of the two business enterprises to compete favourably with the other, it has to attract customers. Lowering the price of the commodity is one of the options at hand. How then can an enterprise be able to lower the cost of the commodity without creating an imbalance with the required production costs? This is where artificial intelligence comes into practice. A firm has to employ modern techniques to lower the costs needed to facilitate a given production process (Gerrard 2008).At this juncture, business intelligence can be employed to study all the factors of production and challenges. Their value in business today can no longer be underestimated. One may simply term them as simply priceless. It will, therefore, be of essence that an entrepreneur takes his or her time trying to take information in a bid to quantify the factors and even to assess the quality of the factors that are to be employed. Knowing the essence of the latter, it will be wise enough for us to practically display how technology can act as a stepping stone towards success in the business (Williams Williams 2010).For analysis, a case of an online dealing foreign exchange trading brokerage firm will be considered. Forex trading is said to be the largest business trading in the world. The popularity of the trading brokers rises every day. The company invites customers to participate in Forex by simply investing a small amount in them. Such company will reap profits through the online traffic and directly from the exchange it participates in. However, they face lots of limitation in their day to day running of activities. The most notable challenge is volatility: the currency values are dynamic. Competition is also another challenging factor in Forex business. Such a company will have to attract lots of customers for it to profit better than its competitors (Kuyda Hotproff 2001). To optimize profits for the company, all stakeholders and shareholders should be left hands tied. Our best bet will be to build business intelligence on some of the companyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s problems cited. In our case, artificial intelligence software will serve the purpose of facilitating human resource management efficiency, picking out efficiency in the trade market, learning from market trends and improving on them and so on and so forth.CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR USING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE IN DEALING WITH THE PROBLEMS IDENTIFIEDFirst, we will gather the relevant data required by the company. Raw data is considered an important building block towards achieving a successful intelligence system. Otherwise with no data where else wi ll we retrieve the finished product. Such a company will require sophisticated methods of keeping track of customer details, employee details, and lastly, but most importantly, the Forex details. The company must deliver results. Working at Forex is not that easy as witnesses may confess. Lots of technicalities are involved for such company to succeed. Customers demand quality and not ask for it. This is usually termed as the extranet environment whereby customer interaction with employees is highly regarded. Such connections can assist in developing formidable relationship with other probable suppliers and business partners in related fields. A highly attractive website with a top rated domain will also serve to boost the connection between customers and the Forex masters (Robert 2001). More stable internet connection not only serves for an improved customer service but for the purpose of Forex trading. Minute by minute information on the market will be needed, thus information wil l be delivered to the experts on time and timely profit generating decisions will be made that will benefit the company in question.The tricky part of business intelligence is probably designing of its infrastructure. The fact that business is expected to grow makes it more complex to create its systems and thus experts should be able to see beyond their noses when designing such fabricated systems. A clear example is the expected rise in the number of customers trading with the Forex Company. A designer should be able to design a database that will be able to accommodate all of the expected number. Predictive nature of experts serves to avoid crashing of very expensive database components, for example, site failure, thus saving gigantic sums for the company (Rud 2009).Storage of data from the required sources in the company should be kept in a warehouse. Key components in the Forex Company should be identified for a correct architectural design of the warehouse to be achieved (Thie rauf 2001). The key components are like customer details, Forex market details, Employee details to name just a few. The correct layer of the database will then be constructed from the information achieved from the organization. A more pronounced layer in the database in normally the application layer (Blockdjik 2008). The above company that is the Forex Company like any other company requires timely report generation and disbursement to consumers. Emerging trends in the market either in the Forex market or in the general market should be noted from database querying and analysis that involves tools like graphical analysis tools. The application layer should have the capability to give employees and consumers easy access of the trends. For a company that deals with foreign exchange, a probable idea would be to build a mobile phone application that makes retrieval of information stored in the companyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s database easy to access. This can be of great benefit particularly to cu stomers. Prompt decisions can be made this way. As somebody once put it, it is important to increase customer loyalty by providing information on accounts if they are to make faster great investment strategies.Is it possible then for us to reduce the factors of production and maximize our profits? Yes, it is. Taking the case scenario above an intranet would be an ideal way of showing how an organization can cut its cost of production (Veccelis 2011). If the Forex Company sets up a networking among its employees flow of information in the organization, then it will be multidirectional. This is opposed to the classic way of transfer of information, whereby movement of information was linearized (Loshin 2000). The latter thus saves a fortune for the company that would otherwise depend on messengers to relay information. It also saves time for the business. Time is really money for such an organization that ...

History Atomic Bomb Essay - 3526 Words

In early August 1945 atomic bombs were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These two bombs quickly yielded the surrender of Japan and the end of American involvement in World War II. By 1946 the two bombs caused the death of perhaps as many as 240,000 Japanese citizens1. The popular, or traditional, view that dominated the 1950s and 60s Ââ€" put forth by President Harry Truman and Secretary of War Henry Stimson Ââ€" was that the dropping of the bomb was a diplomatic maneuver aimed at intimating and gaining the upper hand in relations with Russia. Today, fifty-four years after the two bombings, with the advantage of historical hindsight and the advantage of new evidence, a third view, free of obscuring bias and passion,†¦show more content†¦Trumans monumental decision to drop these bombs was born out of the complex background discussed above. Pressure to drop the bomb stemmed from three major categories: military, domestic and diplomatic. The mil itary pressures stemmed from discussion and meetings Truman had with Secretary of War Stimson, army chief of Staff General Marshal Chief of Staff, Admiral William Leahy, Secretary of the Navy James Forrestal and others. On June 18th, 1945, general Marshall and Secretary of War Stimson convinced Truman to set an invasion of the island of Kyushu for November 19457. Truman knew of the ferocious fighting currently taking place in the Pacific, and naturally had a desire to minimize what the ferocious fighting currently taking place in the Pacific, and naturally had a desire to minimize what he fled would inevitably be a long, bloody struggle8. In an article written to Harpers magazine two years after the dropping of the bombs. Stimson wrote that the, Allies would be faced with the enormous task of destroying an armed force of five million and five thousand suicide aircraft, belonging to a race that had already amply demonstrated its ability to fight literally to the death. 9 Stimson, Truman and others believed the invasion of the Japanese mainland would be extremely costly, and therefore embraced the bomb as a military weapon whose use fully condoned the never questioned. Trumans feelings that the bomb was a necessary military weapon can be seen inShow MoreRelated History Atomic Bomb Essay3454 Words   |  14 Pages In early August 1945 atomic bombs were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These two bombs quickly yielded the surrender of Japan and the end of American involvement in World War II. By 1946 the two bombs caused the death of perhaps as many as 240,000 Japanese citizens1. The popular, or traditional, view that dominated the 1950s and 60s – put forth by President Harry Truman and Secretary of War Henry Stimson – was that the dropping of the bomb was a diplomatic maneuver aimedRead MoreThe Dropping Of The Atomic Bomb Essay1734 Words   |  7 PagesPeter Lim History 435 4/30/2015 The dropping of the atomic bomb was used to save American lives; the most common excuse as to why President Harry Truman decided to drop the atomic bomb on Japan. In Major Problems in the History of World War II it has been discussed in the chapter The Atomic Bomb and the End of World War II that former President Truman recalled how he learned about the atomic bomb project as well as the public opinion on the Atomic Bomb. 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Global Advertising Essay - 1724 Words

The term ‘global’ brings implications of a sense of ‘togetherness’, global advertising therefore suggests marketing to the world as a sole unit. The pioneer of global marketing was Theodore Levitt, ‘he insisted that companies should start thinking themselves as global rather than multinational’ (Barnet, 1994: 168). ‘The global corporation treats the entire world as if it were a single entity and sells the same things in the same way everywhere’ (Leiss, Kline, Hally, 1997: 171). However this generates question over the possibility of the success in ‘global’ advertising in a world of individual consumers. In a society where we are bombarded with over three thousand advertisements per day it is self evident how the advertising industry have†¦show more content†¦In terms of the relationship between globalization and advertising, Myers (1999) presents two perspectives firstly globalization as imagery and globalizat ion as marketing strategy. According to Myers, globalization as imagery upholds the collection of images, rhetoric, and discourse; this is particularly significant in manifesting the values and meanings that are received by the consumer. In this case the globe as a place, as a value and in creating a sense of ‘the global’, again the continuing importance of unity and community. This is also achieved through the image of a quality product, for example companies want to have a global impression as a sign that it is recognised around the world. The reception of global images is mediated by local culture so there is the imagery of global goods with local meanings, contradiction the notion of ‘global’ advertising. The second perspective is more focused on the business aspect, globalization as marketing strategy. 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The Spread of Nuclear Weapons free essay sample

This book is structured as a debate between the authors on the subject of nuclear proliferation. Waltz â€Å"argues that because nuclear weapons ‘will never the less spread,’ the end result will be stabilizing. His main point is that ‘nuclear weapons make wars hard to start’ and that even radical states will act like rational ones because of the mutually deterrent effort of nuclear weapons. Sagan . . . fears the worst because of ‘inherent limits in organizational reliability. He contends that the parochial interests of professional military leaders in emerging nuclear states, who will tend to see war as ‘inevitable’ and skeptically view any nonmilitary alternatives, will lead to deterrence failures or accidental war. In addition, Sagan argues these states will probably lack ‘positive mechanisms of civilian control’ to restrain militant tendencies. † Because nuclear weapons are so much more powerful than any armaments previously known, their introduction at the end of World War II required a rethinking of strategic principles. State A seeks to prevent state B from attacking, by threatening to respond forcefully to attack and inflicting retribution on B. If B takes the threat seriously and refrains from attacking, A’s deterrence policy has succeeded. Nuclear weapons lend themselves particularly well to deterrence because they can impose tremendous damage on an enemy. Deterrence thus became the principal–indeed, they have argued, the purpose that nuclear weapons serve. In my opinion, Sagan is right. We should worry about the spread of nuclear weapons. Both the United States and the USSR achieved an assured destruction capacity by the 1960s. As a result, Waltz believed that all the countries should have nuclear weapons. No matter who start the war, the world will be destroyed. Why not add more members to join the club? She said that spread rather than proliferation. Someday the world will be populated by fifteen or eighteen nuclear-weapon states. What the further spread of nuclear weapons will do the world is therefore a compelling question. According to the Times Newspaper, The United States secretly deployed thousands of nuclear weapons in 27 countries at the height of the Cold War, in some cases without even the knowledge of the governments involved. 1 This issue remained me that Waltz s point: It is better to have more countries that own the nuclear weapons than just few powerful countries. However, Waltz s point of view is not a major thought of the issue of nuclear weapon. Almost the entire southern hemisphere is now covered by nuclear-weapon-free zones. The ones in Latin America and the South Pacific were established during the Cold War, those in Southeast Asia and Africa after its ending. Zones have also been proposed, so far without success, for the Middle East, South Asia and Northeast Asia. 2 In fact, the nuclear power is extremely diseqilibrium in the world, and I believe it is almost impossible for most of the countries to have nuclear power. In a large-scale nuclear war, each side would suffer such catastrophic destruction that neither could regard the outcome as a victory. To provide any chance for meaningful victory, a nuclear war would therefore have to be severely limited. But the prospects for controlling a nuclear war are at best uncertain. â€Å"Despite a steep draw down in U. S. and Russian nuclear forces in the years after 1991, both the United States and Russia continue to maintain large arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons poised for immediate launch. Under the most optimistic projections, these arsenals will remain large and launch-ready for decades. This is the point that Sagan talked about. More nuclear weapons will only product more damage. It is very difficult to control those destructive weapons. As a practical matter the task of defense against large-scale nuclear attack is difficult, perhaps impossible, when each side has thousands of weapons that can be launched from different directions, at different speeds, and with decoys to confuse the defense. To stop all of them is unlikely, and, if only one penetrated a defensive system, it could cause catastrophic damage. In United States, public boredom with the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which would prohibit all nuclear test explosions worldwide, is depressing but comprehensible. After all, the cold war is over. The problem is that Senate Republicans don’t recognize that fact, and they are playing with fire in the messy new 21st-century world. The debate over the treaty, first proposed by President Eisenhower and signed in 1996, tells us plenty about the rejection of the whole idea of diplomacy in favor of a new, highly partisan obtuseness in American foreign policy. 4 The U. S. Senate’s recent rejection of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was a huge disappointment to many Americans. The U. S. ’s allies and friends responded to this vote with universal shock. The situation in the U. S. seems worse, even the cold war is over. Several times in recent months in Russian, President Boris Yeltsin and other Russian leaders have warned about the dangers of a world war or reminded Washington that Moscow still has a huge nuclear arsenal. The warnings have accompanied recent disputes over Chechnya, Kosovo and Iraq. Despite regular disagreements, U. S. and Russian officials want to maintain their stable, if sometimes acrimonious relations. Russian and U. S. not only compete to each other and maintain their stable but also prevent other countries to develop nuclear weapons. For example, nuclear physicist Wen Ho Lee, a central figure in the government’s Chinese espionage investigation at Los Alamos National Laboratory, was ar rested yesterday in New Mexico and charged with 59 counts of mishandling classified information and violating secrecy provisions of the Atomic Energy Act. His arrest came after a federal grand jury issued a far-reaching indictment that charged Lee with downloading vast quantities of highly sensitive information related to the design, construction and testing of nuclear weapons from a classified computing network at Los Alamos to his unsecured office computer and to 10 portable tapes, seven of which are missing. 6 The case is being prosecuted because Wen Ho Lee has denied the United States its exclusive dominion and control over some of this nation’s most sensitive nuclear secrets. In Asia the CTBT would make it harder for North Korea to advance a nuclear-weapons program or for China to develop the technology required to place multiple warheads atop a single mobile missile. The congressional committee investigating potential Chinese espionage concluded that it would be more difficult for Beijing to exploit secrets it may have acquired from the U. S. if it can’t conduct nuclear tests. By the way, this situation is what Sagan wrote about: the powerful countries with nuclear weapons will try to control forever, and this should be obstructed. While the U. S. military provides an overwhelming deterrent to any rational adversary, we must also worry about how to deal with potential threats from sources that are not rational. And it is against these dangers that the Administration is developing and testing a limited NMD system, with a decision on deployment possible as early as next summer. This decision will be based on our overall security interests and will take into account cost, threat, technological feasibility and effects on arms control. 7 This pointed out that nuclear proliferation is producing some bad effect to the U. S and also the world. Like Sagan said that not only nonproliferation is necessarily but also the powerful countries should reduce their nuclear weapons. China wants to be a world power on a par with the U. S. This country s strategic nuclear arsenal is 300 times as small as that of the U. S. The entire arsenal packs about as much explosive power as what the U. S. stuffs into one Trident submarine. The process began in the early 1990s, at the very top of the armed forces, when politicians pushed the military to streamline its command-and-control structure. 8 More than a year after U. N. rms inspectors left Iraq, the issue of whether Saddam Hussein has used the time to rebuild his weapons program is vexing U. S. policy makers and stirring debate on the campaign trail. The Security Council is struggling to forge a new policy that would allow the inspectors to return, but its members remain divided on the sanctions. It agreed to a series of short extensions of the oil-for-food program, w hich lets Iraq to bypass sanctions and sell oil to buy food and humanitarian goods. 9 If those powerful countries don t reduce the nuclear weapons, the other countries will not feel securely. It will produce a vicious circle. Obviously, the real international competitions are not like Waltz s thought. The more countries have nuclear power the more this world is in dangerous. After World War II ended in 1945, considerable support again developed for arms control and for alternatives to military conflict in international relations. The United Nations Charter was designed to permit a supranational agency to enforce peace, avoiding many of the weaknesses of the League of Nations covenant. After the carnage of World War I, the international climate was more receptive to the idea of arms control. During the years between the two world wars, many formal arms-control conferences were held and many treaties were drawn up. One of the most important agreements on arms control was the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty of 1968. Signatories pledged to restrict the development, deployment, and testing of nuclear weapons to ensure that weapons, materials, or technology would not be transferred outside the five countries that had nuclear weapons. Sagan idea obviously is the trunk stream, which the whole world have worked on it. Perhaps the most pressing nuclear problem since the ending of the cold war is that of nuclear proliferation. It has become increasingly difficult to prevent advanced Third World states from developing nuclear weapons if they desire them. Attempts to police the use of nuclear technologies and fuels through inspections and controls imposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency have been useful in slowing proliferation, but in the end nonproliferation is likely to rest on political judgments–for example, can a nation adequately protect its security without nuclear weapons? Will the political costs of acquiring them be prohibitive? 10 The difficult nonproliferation challenge in the future is not to ensure that the U. S. government and people are opposed to the further proliferation of nuclear weapons. In deed, it is not difficult to understand why a large nuclear state, with the most powerful conventional forces in the world, would want to limit severely the spread of nuclear weapons to other states in the international system. The real challenge is to create a future in which the government leaders, the organizations under them, and the citizens of nonnuclear states around the globe believe that it is in their interests to remain nonuclear states. 1 The awesome destructive power of nuclear weapons clearly increase the cost of war, and a statesman s awareness of this basic fact can be, in theory at least, a positive force for peace. But nuclear weapons are not controlled by states or statesmen; they are controlled by organization. These organizations, like all complex organization, will inevitably have biases and parochial interests, will by necessity develop routines and standardized procedures, and will occasionally make serious operational errors.